[International] Hsu Hui-yi Column: The Impact and Development of ASEAN Countries Knocking on BRICS' Door on the Indo-Pacific Order
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The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing its most drastic changes since the Cold War. The "Global South" is gradually growing into a strategic node with an independent will. Among the most noteworthy developments is the successive declaration by core ASEAN members such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand to knock on the door of the BRICS mechanism. This is not only a shift in economic cooperation but also symbolizes a qualitative change in ASEAN's traditional hedging strategy.
From Non-Alignment to a Strategy of Multipolarization
ASEAN countries have pursued equidistant great power balancing in their diplomacy. However, with the long-term intensification of great power competition, Southeast Asian nations are increasingly feeling the strategic pressure of being "forced to choose sides."
The underlying logic of ASEAN knocking on BRICS' door has shifted from "passive hedging" to "active hedging." Countries realize that merely navigating between two major powers is insufficient to maximize their own interests, thus they are more inclined to promote the substantive "multipolarization" of the international system by participating in non-Western-led multilateral platforms. The BRICS mechanism happens to provide an alternative strategic space that does not come with Western political conditions and prioritizes the "right to development."
Southern Consensus on Financial Defense and De-risking
Since the Russia-Ukraine war, the West's use of the dollar and the SWIFT system as tools for sanctions has objectively triggered economic security anxiety in a vast number of Southern countries.
ASEAN countries connecting with the BRICS system is not for decoupling from the West, but for building stronger "financial resilience." The promotion of local currency settlement and alternative payment networks by the BRICS mechanism precisely addresses ASEAN's pain point of reducing reliance on a single currency. This defensive de-risking approach is consolidating into a consensus in the Global South, which will also significantly increase the difficulty for the United States to unilaterally dominate regional rules through the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF).
The rush of ASEAN countries to align with the BRICS group indicates China's influence and a qualitative change in traditional ASEAN strategy. Pictured is the BRICS Summit (Photo: BRICS Summit).
Breaking Through the Indo-Pacific Containment Net and the Linkage Effect of Regional Crises
In the macro game of great powers, ASEAN's leaning towards BRICS objectively provides a strategic loophole for China and Russia to hedge against the Indo-Pacific defense networks of the Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia) and AUKUS (Australia, UK, US).
China is deeply integrating BRICS expansion with the "Belt and Road" initiative through infrastructure and technology transfer. From a defensive perspective, this implies a warning: if Southeast Asia develops closer institutional ties with China and Russia in multilateral mechanisms, and if the regional security environment undergoes drastic changes in the future, the difficulty for the West to mobilize ASEAN for unified economic pressure or diplomatic statements may increase significantly. From the perspective of great power games, this objectively reserves valuable strategic buffer space for Beijing's geopolitical layout in the surrounding region.
Testing ASEAN Centrality and Strategic Cohesion
Embracing multipolarity also pulls at ASEAN's internal consensus on its strategic direction. While the Philippines deepens its alliance with the US and Japan in the South China Sea dispute, Malaysia and Thailand are actively knocking on BRICS' door; Indonesia and Vietnam are attempting to maintain defense cooperation with the US while aligning economically with BRICS. This strategic temperature difference, with maritime nations leaning relatively towards the US and continental and core ASEAN countries vigorously exploring non-Western connections, will continue to weaken ASEAN's internal cohesion. In the future, ASEAN may face more severe decision-making risks when confronting major regional security issues.
In the future, the Indo-Pacific region will break free from the "US-China binary opposition" framework and move towards a "transactional multipolarity" guided by core national interests. Regional countries will flexibly switch roles in various international mechanisms based on their substantive needs. In this ongoing great power game, whoever can accurately meet the modernization needs of regional countries and provide practical development dividends will occupy an irreplaceable strategic position in the reshaped new Indo-Pacific order. (Editor: Chen Wen-wei)
Further Reading
Hsu Hui-yi Column: The Polarized Business Opportunities of ASEAN's Youth Dividend and Silver Economy
ASEAN-Russia Summit Concludes, Strengthening Cooperation on Energy and Food Security
Author: Hsu Hui-yi, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Graduate Institute of Southeast Asian Regional Management, National Taipei University of Education
Source Link: https://www.rti.org.tw/news?uid=3&pid=215514
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