[Politics] Post-Xi-Trump Summit Poll by Defense Institute: 60% Believe US Support Unchanged, Over Half Worry About Being Sacrificed

The National Defense Institute recently released a public opinion poll on Taiwanese attitudes after the "Xi-Trump Summit." The results show that although nearly 60% of the public believes that US support for Taiwan will not change, over half of the public is concerned that Taiwan's interests may be sacrificed in the interactions between major powers, with younger generations being the most worried. Furthermore, most people do not believe that a single bilateral summit will reduce China's military threat to Taiwan or make Taiwan safer. #Reporter Yang Ren-hsiang reporting# The "Xi-Trump Summit" was held in Beijing in May, and its impact on Taiwan has garnered significant attention from the public. To understand the public's views on the "Xi-Trump Summit," the National Defense Security Research Institute conducted a nationwide public opinion survey, the results of which have been gradually released. Younger Generations Worry About Taiwan Being Sacrificed in Great Power Interactions Regarding the question, "After the Xi-Trump Summit, will US support for Taiwan change?" the survey showed that as high as 58% of respondents believe it "will not change," 16% believe US support will weaken, and 10% believe it will strengthen. Additionally, concerning "In the interactions between the US and China, are Taiwan's interests likely to be sacrificed?" a high 51% of respondents believe "Taiwan's interests will be sacrificed," while 29% believe "Taiwan's interests will be considered," indicating that most people still hold a degree of concern about Taiwan's situation in great power interactions. Notably, younger generations seem to be more concerned about great power interactions. Among respondents aged 18-29, 70% believe "Taiwan's interests will be sacrificed," compared to 55% for those aged 30-59, and 35% for those aged 60 and above. In response, Li Guan-cheng, Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Warfare, National Defense Security Research Institute, analyzed that in addition to younger individuals having higher educational attainment and more diverse information sources, the rapid changes in the international situation may also trigger their vigilance and concern about great power competition. Li Guan-cheng stated: "(Original sound) The younger generation has experienced US-China competition, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Trump's more transactional diplomatic style during his second term. However, I don't think this necessarily represents a loss of confidence in the US among the younger generation; it's more like a reflection of Taiwan's concerns and vigilance in the context of great power interactions and competition." Maintaining Peace: Strengthening National Defense is More Important Than Showing Goodwill to China Li Guan-cheng further explained that when asked, "What is the most important way to maintain national security and peace in the Taiwan Strait at this stage?" 44% of respondents chose "strengthening national defense capabilities," which is higher than 29.7% for "showing goodwill to mainland China" and 11.8% for "deepening cooperation with the United States." However, when asked about secondary options, "deepening cooperation with the United States" became the most common answer (44.9%), indicating that Taiwan-US cooperation is still considered an important auxiliary approach. Li Guan-cheng said: "(Original sound) In fact, the public is not choosing between 'strengthening national defense' and 'deepening Taiwan-US cooperation'; they tend to view these as complementary security perspectives or strategies." Regarding the question, "After the Xi-Trump Summit, will China's military pressure on Taiwan increase?" a high 50.7% of respondents believe it "will not change," while only 28.4% believe it will increase, and 5.9% believe it will decrease. Similarly, for the question, "After the Xi-Trump Summit, will Taiwan become safer?" nearly 60% (59.8%) of respondents believe "there will be no change." Fang Tsung-yen, Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Warfare, National Defense Security Research Institute, analyzed that although the "Taiwan issue" was mentioned in the "Xi-Trump Summit," the positions and attitudes of both sides did not change significantly. Furthermore, in recent years, the domestic public has become increasingly aware of China's threats, and therefore does not believe that a single summit can change the status quo. Fang Tsung-yen stated: "(Original sound) From the public's perspective, threats from the CCP, whether military or non-military, are unlikely to change due to a single 'Xi-Trump Summit' or similar events." Experts Urge Government to Strengthen Strategic Communication and Reduce the Spread of "Doubts about the US" However, Fang Tsung-yen also pointed out that when asked, "If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, will the United States send troops to defend?" although 44.4% of respondents believe the US will send troops, slightly higher than the 42.5% who believe it will not, this is a decline from the same survey conducted in March of this year, where 53.4% believed the US "will send troops." This indicates that public trust in the United States fluctuates with its actions and US-China interactions. Fang Tsung-yen stated that the interactions between the US, China, and Taiwan are not determined by a single high-level meeting but are influenced by multiple factors including military, diplomatic, industrial, and regional security. In the future, the government needs to strengthen strategic communication with the public to help them understand the multi-layered interactions in Taiwan-US relations and reduce the space for the spread of "doubts about the US." This survey was commissioned by the National Defense Institute and conducted by the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University. The respondents were primarily individuals residing in Taiwan aged 18 and above, interviewed by telephone. The survey period was from May 28 to May 31, 2026, completing 785 landline samples and 342 mobile samples, for a total of 1,127 samples. At a 95% confidence level, the maximum possible margin of error is ±2.92%. (Editor: Shen Chen-chiang)