[Finance] Astonishing! Cathay-NTU Estimates This Year's Economic Growth Rate to Reach a Maximum of 12.8%
bella@@ 央廣 新聞5h ago
The Cathay-NTU industry-academia collaboration team today (17th) released Taiwan's "Economic Climate and Financial Situation" outlook. The team believes that capital expenditures for AI infrastructure continue to be revised upwards and expand, driving strong export growth, coupled with synchronized growth in private consumption. Therefore, they have raised this year's forecast for Taiwan's economic growth rate to 10.1%. Furthermore, if the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, supply chain crises are resolved, and tariffs and imported inflation are alleviated, the most optimistic growth rate forecast could reach 12.8%. #Please listen to reporter Chen Lin-hsing-hung's report#
Capital expenditures for cloud and AI infrastructure by major technology companies continue to be revised upwards and expand, driving strong export growth in electronic components and information and communication products. Coupled with improvements in private consumption due to cash handouts, record-high stock market performance, and a recovery in tourism activities, the Cathay-NTU industry-academia collaboration team has raised this year's forecast for Taiwan's economic growth rate to 10.1%, estimating an 80% probability of it falling between 7.8% and 12.8%.
Professor Hsu Shih-hsun from National Taiwan University, who participates in the Cathay-NTU industry-academia collaboration project, pointed out that the US-Iran conflict has led to soaring international oil prices. The government's price stabilization measures have played a crucial role in controlling imported inflation and the impact of rising raw material costs. Now that a ceasefire agreement is expected in the US-Iran conflict, imported inflation is likely to be alleviated, and previously concerning factors like supply chain crises are expected to be resolved, with Taiwan's economic growth rate optimistically reaching 12.8%. Hsu Shih-hsun said: "(Original sound) The supply chain pressure caused by COVID-19 earlier was less than a quarter of the current situation. So, although we are still facing potential port congestion and supply chain crises, compared to the first time we encountered such a situation during COVID-19, the current situation is relatively under control, and the scale is relatively good in my opinion. Therefore, overall, we are more optimistic in predicting this situation this time."
Chen Chin-chi, an associate manager at Cathay Financial Holdings' Economic Research Department, noted that the four major US cloud service providers – Amazon (AWS), Microsoft, Google, and Meta – are competing for the generative AI business. It is estimated that the combined capital expenditure of these four giants this year will reach as high as 725 billion US dollars. Currently, many brokerages and external institutions estimate that this figure may be revised upwards. If the number is higher, it means that the export profits generated by Taiwan's related supply chains will be even more considerable. Although the growth of non-electronic industries in Taiwan is currently stagnant, the export dividends brought by AI demand will still significantly drive Taiwan's economic growth this year, and this growth is on top of last year's high base, which is different from the growth pattern after COVID-19. (Editor: Song Wan-yuan)
Source Link: https://www.rti.org.tw/news?uid=3&pid=215060
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