[Politics] Lin Chan-hui Column: Beijing's Economic Coercion Against Taiwan is Diminishing in Effectiveness as China Offers to Buy Pineapples, Groupers, and Pomelos
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Since 2021, China has successively suspended the import of agricultural and fishery products from Taiwan, such as pineapples, Taiwanese sugar apples, wax apples, and groupers, on multiple occasions citing reasons like quarantine, food safety, or market regulation. However, at the recent "Straits Forum" held in Xiamen, Beijing once again signaled its intention to purchase Taiwanese sugar apples, groupers, ponkan tangerines, and tea, sparking public attention.
On the surface, this appears to be a sign of warming relations in cross-strait agricultural and fishery trade. However, from the perspective of economic coercion and security, a more noteworthy message from this policy adjustment is that the marginal utility of China's use of agricultural and fishery product restrictions as a tool to pressure Taiwan is gradually diminishing.
Beijing's Model of Coercion Against Taiwan and Taiwan's Response
In the past, Taiwan's agricultural and fishery products were significantly reliant on the Chinese market. Beijing's policy objective at the time was clear: to exert economic pressure on specific agricultural and fishery industries through market access control, thereby influencing relevant industry groups and local interest structures, and sending a signal to Taiwanese society that political factors would affect market access.
However, over the years, the political effects Beijing originally anticipated have not been fully realized. In response to China's market restrictions, the Taiwanese government has actively promoted the transformation of agricultural product exports and market diversification policies, assisting businesses in expanding into alternative markets such as Japan, the United States, and Southeast Asia. Simultaneously, the government has also mitigated the impact on industries and the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen through domestic procurement and processing subsidies. Over the past few years, Taiwan has gradually reduced its reliance on the Chinese market, establishing new export channels and risk diversification mechanisms.
The Effectiveness of China's Economic Coercion is Declining
Therefore, China's recent restrictive measures on Taiwanese agricultural and fishery products provide an important case study for observing changes in the effectiveness of economic coercion. Taking Taiwanese sugar apples as an example, before the ban was implemented, the Chinese market accounted for over 90% of exports. Groupers also had a substantial proportion sold to the Chinese market. Under these circumstances, China believed that by restricting market access, it could quickly exert economic pressure on relevant industries and political pressure on the Taiwanese government.
However, market dependence is not static; it changes with adjustments in industrial structure and market layout. Faced with China's market restrictions, the Taiwanese government and industry have actively explored overseas markets. Japan, the United States, Singapore, Malaysia, and Canada have gradually become important export destinations. Although the scale of these export markets cannot completely replace the Chinese market, they have effectively reduced the dependence of relevant industries on a single market. In other words, as Taiwan strengthens its industrial "supply chain resilience" and market diversification, the political influence of the single Chinese market on Taiwan will be limited as Taiwan's export market risks are dispersed.
On the other hand, compared to market diversification, the learning and adaptation capabilities of the Taiwanese government and farmers and fishermen are the most crucial factors in diminishing the effectiveness of China's economic coercion. The first time Taiwan encountered China's export ban, the industry suffered the greatest impact due to a lack of early warning and preparation. Farmers, fishermen, and export businesses faced issues such as order cancellations, price drops, and market contraction, leading to panic and uncertainty. However, as similar control and coercion measures have repeatedly occurred, the government and industry have begun to establish risk awareness and response mechanisms. During the second encounter with restrictions, the government and businesses had already started planning for other export markets, and the risks associated with the Chinese market were incorporated into daily operational management.
In conclusion, China's announcement at the Straits Forum to purchase Taiwanese sugar apples, groupers, ponkan tangerines, and tea, while seemingly positive news for cross-strait agricultural and fishery trade, actually reflects another trend worth noting from a longer-term perspective: the diminishing effectiveness of Beijing's use of import restrictions on agricultural and fishery products as a tool to pressure Taiwan. The procurement commitment at the Straits Forum is not just trade news but also an important case study for observing the changing efficacy of China's economic coercion.
Author: Lin Chan-hui, Assistant Professor, General Education Center, Feng Chia University.
Source: https://www.rti.org.tw/news?uid=3&pid=215066
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