[Finance] AI Boom Drives Exports and Investment, Taiwan Institute of Economic Research Raises This Year's Economic Growth Rate to 9.33%

The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) released its latest economic growth forecast for 2026 today (16th). Benefiting from the continuous expansion of global demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), High-Performance Computing (HPC), and cloud data centers, which has driven significant growth in exports of semiconductors, AI servers, and information and communication technology (ICT) products, Taiwan's economic performance this year is better than expected, with the full-year economic growth rate revised upwards to 9.33%. #Please listen to reporter Yang Wen-chun's report# TIER pointed out that although geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased and the US-Iran conflict has pushed up energy prices since the beginning of this year, adding uncertainty to the global economy, the demand for the AI industry remains strong, becoming an important driving force supporting the global economy. With its complete semiconductor and ICT industry chain advantages, Taiwan's exports, investment, and industrial production are growing in tandem, becoming the main force driving economic expansion. TIER founder Dr. Paul Liu stated in an interview that the main reason for this year's economic growth rate being higher than initially forecast is the rapid development of the AI industry. He said: '(Original sound) First, the development of the AI industry; second, the development of the materials industry related to the AI industry; third, because the salaries in the AI industry are very high, it has also led to an increase in domestic consumption levels, so the economic situation is quite good.' In terms of domestic demand, TIER believes that benefiting from improved corporate profits, salary increases, increased dividend payouts, and the wealth effect brought about by the stock market rally, private consumption is expected to rebound moderately this year, with an estimated real private consumption growth rate of 3.51%. Private investment is expected to continue to expand, driven by the demand for AI, HPC, and data center construction, with an estimated real private investment growth rate of 6.16%. Regarding the outlook for the stock market, Dr. Liu stated that Taiwan currently has ample liquidity and the fundamentals remain sound, so he maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the stock market. However, he also reminded that the Taiwan stock market is still deeply affected by international situations, including changes in the global economy and geopolitical conflicts, which could lead to market volatility. In response to Taiwan's "K-shaped economy" and uneven industrial development, Dr. Liu said that traditional industries have low growth but are relatively stable, while high-tech industries, although growing rapidly, are more susceptible to fluctuations in the international economic climate. He believes that only a quarter of the 21st century has passed, and the speed of global economic change has far exceeded that of the past few centuries. Uncertainty will become the norm in the future, and both businesses and governments must enhance their ability to respond. TIER also reminds that although Taiwan has benefited from the AI demand driving significant growth in exports and investment this year, it must still pay attention to variables such as the commercialization progress of AI falling short of expectations, US-China technological competition, adjustments in tariff policies, and Middle East geopolitical risks. (Editor: Chung Chin-lung)