[Politics] US and Iran Willing to Promote Peace Together, Scholar: Both Sides Must Stabilize Economy

The United States and Iran are very likely to sign a peace agreement this week. Scholar Lin Tai-he analyzed in an interview today (15th) that the main reason for the ceasefire between the US and Iran is economic and livelihood issues, and both sides must stabilize the situation before the problems worsen. As for whether Iran will dominate the Middle East as a result? Lin Tai-he believes that Iran can only stop the bleeding and heal for now, and there are still many variables in the region, and the future situation needs to be continuously observed. #Reported by reporter Wang Zhao-kun# There has been preliminary progress in the US-Iran peace agreement. Lin Tai-he, a professor at National Chung Cheng University's Graduate Institute of Strategy and International Affairs, stated that economy and livelihood are the main reasons for both sides to decide on a ceasefire. For example, Iran's internal economy is on the verge of collapse, while the United States faces inflation problems due to rising oil prices and pressure from the midterm elections. Therefore, when neither side can gain an absolute advantage on the battlefield and both are exhausted, this decision is good for both sides. In short, the keywords that both the United States and Iran need now are "stability," and both sides must quickly stabilize their economies and livelihoods. As for the timing of the release of this peace agreement news, it may also be related to the economy. Lin Tai-he pointed out that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a interest rate decision meeting this week, and it will be the debut of the new chairman Kevin Warsh. It is currently predicted that this meeting will make a decision not to raise interest rates, with the goal of first stabilizing the stock market and oil prices. Lin Tai-he said: "(Original sound) So, at least stabilize the market, no increase or decrease, I think this should be reasonable. Stabilize this first, and for the subsequent oil issue, see if it can be reduced to the pre-war level, this needs to be observed slowly." As for whether Iran, after this battle, could become a regional hegemon and completely change the situation in the Middle East? Lin Tai-he analyzed that the hawks and doves in Iranian politics are still competing, and diplomatically, they have offended the remaining friends in the region due to this war. Therefore, it is too early to say that Iran will dominate the Middle East. In the future, not only will the internal situation in Iran need to be continuously observed, but also the dynamics of Iran-US relations and the potential uncertainties brought by Israel need to be noted. Lin Tai-he said: "(Original sound) Iran is stopping the bleeding first, slowly healing, and we need to continue to observe how things develop. At least the regime has not collapsed, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is still there." However, there is one point from Iran's experience this time that is worth Taiwan's reference, and the keyword is "fighting beyond one's means." The specific focus is on various unmanned vehicles, including "Loitering Munitions" (commonly known as suicide drones). Lin Tai-he believes that Taiwan must actively develop them and strive to reduce costs while mass-producing them. In addition, regarding the blockade and counter-blockade that occurred in the Strait of Hormuz this time, Taiwan should also use this to further consider various response measures in the future if the Taiwan Strait faces a blockade.